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Vertical Spreads and Implied Volatility

By: Kerry W. Given

Article Category: SML Trading System

It is commonly taught that one should establish a credit spread when placing a trade with high implied volatility (IV) options and a debit spread with low IV options. But the previous example illustrated identical returns for the credit and debit spreads. So, in that example, we would be indifferent to placing a debit or a credit spread. But let's take it a step further.

We will use the Black-Scholes model to compute the theoretical prices of the GOOG $310 and $320 options from the previous example, but with IV boosted up to 60% (the actual IV values in the above example ranged from 33% to 34%). Now the spread values become:

The Oct $310/$320 bull call spread could be placed for a debit of $436 ($1613 - $1177) and a maximum potential gain of 129%, assuming expiration with GOOG above $320.

Similarly, the Oct $310/$320 bull put spread could be placed for a credit of $563 ($2058 - $1495) and a maximum potential gain of 129%, assuming expiration with GOOG above $320.

Thus, if we were considering placing a bullish vertical spread on Google, the returns would be virtually identical whether the IV was 34% or 60%, or whether we used a credit or debit vertical spread. The higher IV value increased the individual option values dramatically, but the spread values were unchanged. Higher IV does result in higher option prices, but in a spread, we are both buying and selling that high value.

I also computed these option values with IV adjusted to 20%. As we see below, at this very low IV, the returns for the credit and debit spread were still identical so there would be no advantage to placing the debit spread for this low IV stock as some have taught.

The Oct $310/$320 bull call spread could be placed for a debit of $381 ($580 - $199) and a maximum potential gain of 162%, assuming expiration with GOOG above $320.

Similarly, the Oct $310/$320 bull put spread could be placed for a credit of $623 ($1084 - $461) and a maximum potential gain of 165%, assuming expiration with GOOG above $320.

However, the returns for both spreads at IV of 20% are higher than we saw with the other examples with volatilities of 34% and 60%. This is consistent with the overall financial laws of balancing risk and return, i.e., higher returns always carry higher risk. This example has us placing a bullish spread on a stock currently priced near the bottom edge of the price spread; the stock price must make a significant price move of over $9 before expiration for the spread to achieve maximum profitability. However, the low implied volatility tells us the probability of a significant price move is low. Therefore, the returns will be higher, commensurate with the lower probability of success, and therefore, a higher risk of loss.

These examples illustrate two important conclusions:

- The returns for a credit spread and a debit spread placed at the same strike prices for the same equity or index will be identical. Any price differences seen in the marketplace will be transient, as arbitrage will quickly bring the prices back to parity.

- The level of implied volatility (IV) is not a consideration when placing a vertical spread and deciding on a credit or debit spread. High IV does increase the individual option prices, but we are both selling and buying option premium in a spread, so the returns for the credit and debit spreads remain identical.

Changes in IV During the Trade

The maximum profitability of a vertical spread, once placed, cannot change due to changes in implied volatility after the trade was initiated. The initial investment and the width of the spread are fixed; therefore, the maximum potential return is fixed. This is equally true for both credit and debit vertical spreads.

However, the time decay curves of the spreads are affected by changes in implied volatility. Experienced spread traders know that even though the underlying stock price may have moved as predicted above or below the spread strike prices, the spread cannot be closed for a value close to the maximum theoretical profit until close to expiration. The value of the spread will gradually approach the maximum options trading profit as the time value of the options decays away.

Increasing implied volatility (IV) during the trade results in the time decay curves being flattened so that the value of the spread approaches the ultimate value at expiration more slowly. Therefore, the probability of closing the trade early for a majority of the maximum profit is reduced. The flattening effect on the time decay curves due to increasing IV during the life of the trade is identical for credit and debit vertical spreads. Therefore, if one is expecting a large IV increase, such as in advance of an earnings announcement, one should expect to have to carry the trade closer to expiration to achieve a majority of the potential profit if IV increases.

Vertical spreads have an inherent advantage over long or short option positions in that the ultimate profitability of the vertical spread is unaffected by IV changes while we are in the trade.

Decreasing implied volatility (IV) during a vertical spread trade results in the time decay curves spreading out so the value of the spread approaches the ultimate value at expiration more quickly. This effect on the time decay curves due to decreasing IV during the life of the trade is identical for credit and debit vertical spreads. The maximum profit available hasn't changed, but the prospect of closing the trade early for a large portion of that maximum profit is now more probable.

Conclusions

The maxim to use credit spreads when implied volatility is high and debit spreads when implied volatility is low may be a confusion that arose out of long and short option positions. It is indeed true that one should consider buying low volatility options and selling high volatility options. If we are considering a long call or put position, we would look for options with low implied volatility because these are inexpensive options. And similarly, we would target high IV options if we were considering a short call or put position.

However, when playing the stock's directional move with a vertical spread strategy, the choice of a credit or debit spread is largely a personal preference.

The returns for credit and debit spreads will be identical and IV levels will have no effect on the returns. Thus, vertical spreads are an excellent way to trade high volatility options when establishing a long or short option position would be both expensive and risky.

The change of IV during the course of the vertical spread trade will shift the time decay curves. Decreased IV will make it easier to exit the spread early for a large portion of the maximum profit, while increased IV during the trade will make it more likely one will have to take the spread into expiration. But the ultimate profitability of the spread is unaffected by the change in implied volatility.

About Author: Kerry W. Given, Ph.D., aka Dr. Duke, has over twenty years of experience investing in the stock market and over seven years experience trading equity and index options. He has taken many classes on investing and trading through the years and has discovered first hand how difficult it can be to separate the financial facts from the marketing hype, myths, and get rich quick schemes. He can be reached at: ParkwoodCapitalLLC.com