Financial and Investments Articles Blog

Start Forex Tradind To Earn Some More Money

noreply@noemail.com (Forexcellent) — Monday, January 09, 2012 13:30:00 +0000

Who could do with some extra money? Seems a fairly silly question, right? Virtually everyone in the world could do with a bit more cash. Times are tight and it seems that no matter who you talk to, no matter what they do, they are struggling more now than ever. The global financial crisis has been hard on everyone and while prices for everything have been going up, earnings and work available having been dropping or staying static. If you want to earn some more money, if you want to be able to do it when you want from home, then maybe you should start trading. ECN Forex is a great way to earn some extra dough, so get onto it today and start making more tomorrow.

Forex is short for the foreign exchange market with a daily trading volume of around four trillion dollars. It is a worldwide financial market that is focused on trading currencies. It operates around the clock, except for weekends, and is a really easy way for anyone to make some extra money. The foreign exchange market helps facilitate international trade and Forex traders can also make money by speculating on the various exchange rates as the trade deals go through.

The best thing is that you can do it all from home thanks to the wonders of the information and communication revolution. All you need is a computer, a few dollars to spare and automated Forex trading software. The set up costs are virtually nil and you can be up and running in no time. There are virtually no limits and almost anyone can turn a tidy profit in no time.

You can start of small and grow as your experience and confidence grow. That way, you can be sure that you are trading in a sustainable manner. It makes sense to gain an understanding of how the market works and what effects currency rates, then to start increasing the amounts you are trading. By starting small you will be able to learn how the market operates without risking anything, and by the time you are ready to trade larger amounts you will be able to make big money.

There are a number of different Forex trading strategies and it makes sense to trade through a reliable company that will be able to guide you through. The best way to find a good company is to do some research online and then check out a variety of the best sounding companies.

Demand Prints

noreply@noemail.com (Bhatt S) — Wednesday, January 04, 2012 13:30:00 +0000

10 Ways to Use QR Codes in Direct Mail Advertising
You’ll find plenty of creative ways to use QR Codes in marketing all over the web, but they have particular value when integrated into a direct mail advertising campaign. QR Codes can enhance the effectiveness of your direct mail in a number ways:
• First, telling the reader to scan the QR Code with their smartphone is a call to action they can act on immediately, when they are most receptive to your message.
• Secondly, once you’ve engaged the person, you can provide more details about your product or service, offer exclusive coupons, discounts or unique content to further entice them.
• And finally, you can track usage of the QR Codes to figure out what works and what doesn’t, and make adjustments accordingly.
No doubt about it, QR Codes are the next big thing in direct mail marketing. It is an exciting development, especially for small and medium-sized businesses, because they can be implemented so easily and affordably. Here are 10 ways to use QR Codes in your next direct mail advertising campaign:
1. Have the consumer scan the code and enter their contact information to be entered into a drawing for free products and/or services.
2. Send a postcard advertising a property for sale or rent and include a QR Code that launches a virtual tour of the property, then offer a premium for scheduling a showing or attending an open house.
3. Post real-time event information, e. g. a calendar of events, on a mobile website which can be updated without changing the QR Code it’s linked to.
4. If you sell a particular brand of product, have the consumer scan the code to open a link to the manufacturer’s website where they can read the specs, reviews, compare the features and prices of various models, etc.
5. Trying to register people for an event? Print a QR Code on a postcard mailer and have it open the registration form when scanned. Let them pay the registration fee after completing it.
6. Own a restaurant? Print a QR Code on your menu mailer. Have the code generate a text message or email that signs the user up to get the Soup of the Day via text message or the weekly specials via email.
7. Include a QR Code in your design that opens a mobile app that allows consumers to search your inventory.
8. Have the code launch a mobile website featuring testimonials from recent customersand offer a special discount for calling or emailing from there.
9. Advertising the grand opening of your salon and spa? Send a mailer with a QR Code that automatically dials your number to schedule an appointment.
10. Simply offer an exclusive coupon, good for a limited time, to drive traffic to your business’s location. Compare the number of scans to the increase in sales to see if you need to sweeten the offer.
DemandPrints* offers the ability to generate a QR Code, print it on your direct mail, and track the results through their website. Click here to get started on your next direct mail advertising campaign.
DemandPrints* is a leading OnDemand design, print, copy, and direct mail advertising company with services tailored for small and medium businesses. We provide affordably priced and professionally designed printing and direct mail marketing materials, including brochures, newsletters, postcards, stationery, menus and ads. Customers are able to produce their marketing materials and entire direct mail advertising campaign for a fraction of the cost and time previously required.

For more information on DemandPrint’s products and services, please visit *DemandPrints*, call (888) 566-1350, or email Info@DemandPrints*.

Harnessing Stock Market Volatility

noreply@noemail.com (Steve Selengut) — Wednesday, November 16, 2011 13:30:00 +0000

If you were to Google "Stock Market Volatility", you would find a wide range of observations, conversations, reports, analyses, recipes, critiques, predictions, alarms, and causal confusion. Books have been written; indices and measuring tools have been created; rationales and conclusions have been proffered. Yet, the volatility remains.

Statisticians, economists, regulators, politicians, and Wall Street gurus have addressed the volatility issue in one manner or another. In fact, each day's gyrations are explained, reported upon, recorded for later expert analysis, and head scratched about.

The only question I continue to have about all this comical hubbub is why don't y'all just relax and enjoy it. Jon Methuen nailed it in his August 15, 2011 parody of the financial world's ridiculous obsession with "volatility". "A Reasonable Guide To Stock Market Volatility" is a must view --- but only for mature adults with a semi-sick sense of humor.

Decades ago, a nameless college Statistics professor brought me out of a semi-comatose state with an observation about statisticians, politicians, and economists. "In the real world", he said, "there are liars, damn liars, and any member of the groups just mentioned". An economist or a politician, armed with a battery of statistics, is an ominous force indeed.

Well, now all the economists and statisticians have high powered computers and the ability to analyze volatility with the same degree of certainty (or is it arrogance) that they have developed with regard to individual-stock risk analysis, economic and geographical sector correlation dynamics, and future prediction in general.

But the volatility (and the uncertainty it either causes or results from, depending upon the expert you listen to) persists.

Modern computers are so powerful, in fact, that economists and statisticians can now calculate the investment prospects of just about anything. So rich in statistics are these masters of probabilities, alphas, betas, correlation coefficients, and standard deviations that the financial world itself has become, mundane, boring, and easy to deal with. Right?

Since they can predict the future with such a high degree of probability, and hedge against any uncertainty with yet another high degree of probability, why then is the financial world in such a chronic state of upheaval? And why-o-why does the volatility, and the uncertainty, remain?

Why the Volatility and Uncertainty Remain

I expect that you are expecting an opinion --- yet another opinion --- on why the volatility is as pronounced as it seems to be compared with years past. I'll do that next. But, first a sentence or two on "uncertainty" --- the playing field of the NFL (National Financial League). An uncertain environment is the only "for real" certainty you will ever experience in investing. Every investment has some form of risk and uncertainty.

Volatility, on the other hand is simply a force of nature --- one that you need to embrace and deal with constructively if you are to succeed as an investor.

But this new force of nature, this extreme volatility that we have been experiencing recently, has been magnified by the darkest forces of the Dismal Science and the changes that it has encouraged in the way financial professionals view the makeup of the modern investment portfolio.

On the bright side, enhanced market volatility enhances the power of the equity and income security trading disciplines and strategies within the Market Cycle Investment Management (MCIM) methodology --- an approach to market reality that embraces market turbulence, and harnesses market volatility for results that leave most professionals either speechless or in denial.

But, with no statistical data necessary (or available) to support the following opinion, consider this simplistic rationale for the hyper-volatility of today's stock market.

Volatility is a function of supply and demand for the common stock of a finite number of dirty, evil, greedy, polluting, congress corrupting, job creating, product and service providing, innovation and wealth developing, foundation supporting, gift giving, tax-collecting corporations to finance their growth and development.

"Tax collecting" raise an eyebrow? Look at a rental car statement or your next hotel bill. Those greedy corporations collect more money for state and local governments than the income tax collectors --- but that is a whole 'nother issue.

Those of us who trade common stocks in general, IGVSI stocks in particular, owe a debt of gratitude to the real volatility creators --- the hundreds of thousands of derivative products that bring an entirely speculative kind of indirect supply and demand to the securities markets.

Generally speaking, the fundamental, emotional, political, economic, global, environmental, and psychological forces that impact stock market prices have not changed significantly.

Short term market movements are just as non-predictable as they have ever been --- they continue to cause the uncertainty you need to deal with using proven risk minimization techniques like asset allocation diversification and trading.

The key change, the new kid on the block, is the impact of derivative betting mechanisms on the finite number of shares available for trading. Every day on the New York Stock Exchange, thousands of stocks are traded, a billion shares change hands. The average share is "held" for mere minutes.

On top of derivative trading in real things such as sectors, countries, companies, commodities, and industries, we have a myriad of index betting devices, short-long parlor games, option strategies, etc. What's a simple common share of Exxon to do?

Market volatility is here to stay --- at least until multi-level and multi-directional derivatives are relocated to the Las Vegas markets where they belong.

Modern Portfolio Theory --- The Root Of All Evil

noreply@noemail.com (Steve Selengut) — Wednesday, November 16, 2011 13:30:00 +0000

Rumor has it that a group of economists were sitting around their super-computers one day, smoking a "pot-pourri" of perfect statistics, when they came to the fairly-easy-to-support conclusion that not too many professional investment managers were able to "beat the market averages" consistently.

With the right statistics (and widely accepted assumptions) this was a simple suit of imperial clothing to weave. And with a ready audience on both Wall Street and Main Street (don't you just hate that expression), this conclusion laid the framework for the passive investment mentality that has overrun the markets.

Armed with some pretty impressive theory, the economists "poipetrated" the very first occupation of Wall Street!

We now have more derivative betting mechanisms masquerading as common stocks than we have common stocks themselves --- 'nuff said on volatility. So long as derivative chips are in play, it (high volatility) will run the casino.

Clearly, the MPT creators were once Mutual Fund investors, looking for something better after years of disappointing investment returns. True, mutual fund managers rarely beat the markets --- but why? And also true, private, individual, portfolio managers rarely fail to beat the market averages over significant time periods.

Mutual Fund managers were destined to failure on the day that the first "self-directed" retirement/savings plan was created. This transfer of management responsibility to inexperienced "main streeters" spelled disaster from the get-go.

At about the same time, market cycle analytics (Peak-to-Peak, Peak-to-Trough, etc) were scrapped in favor of a competitive, calendar year, racetrack scenario.

When the going gets tough, professional Mutual Fund managers become sell-order-takers. When bubbles develop, they are "prospectusly" required to join the lemmings in their race up to and over the cliff. Open-end Mutual Funds are managed by the mob, quite literally.

Independent managers (particularly MCIM practitioners and CEF portfolio managers) have no push-pull relationship with the mob. Management rules are applied to economic realities; probabilities being left to statistical Monday morning QBs. Real managers call the shots, taking our profits before the mob panics and selecting bargains while the cyclical rout is in progress.

The Probability Of Winning The Bet On Probabilities

MPT (Modern, lazy if you will, Portfolio Theory) has other erroneous ideologies and assumptions in its DNA. It wants investors to believe that short term growth in portfolio market value is the be all and end all of investing activity, and that the proper alignment of any number of speculations is an acceptable investment strategy.

The creation, development, and growth of a portfolio's income component is systemically ignored and left to chance in the MPT portfolio design process, while an all consuming battle is waged against the simple fact of a rather simple to deal with reality called the market cycle.

Economists are just naturally averse to admitting that they can neither predict, nor control, nor cope with market, interest rate, and economic cycles as well as a seasoned professional investor just has to. They observe and study the past --- managers, and actual investors, operate in the present, and deal with an unknowable future using rules and disciplines --- not probabilities.

But MPT promoters, university funded economists, and Wall Street have deeper pockets than small and independent investment professionals. The ability to create all manner of securities (and theories) from thin air is clearly more profitable and less risky (from a law suit perspective) than dealing with the intricacies of individual stocks and bonds.

There is no real question about the prospects for market volatility --- it is here to stay. The real question is how to deal with it profitably. The most obvious solution is rapid trading for fun and profit, a conclusion that most readers of this article will nod their heads to.

But long term, portfolio development-wise, looking to a more secure retirement or other objective, there is a non-MPT, non short-term-trading solution --- one that embraces both the extremes of volatility and the repetitive (if not predictable) nature of the market cycle.

Market Cycle Investment Management, with its core equity trading discipline, and mandated "base income" growth mechanisms, is a proven common sense methodology that no self respecting economist will ever appreciate.

The K. I. S. S. principle is just not as sexy as standard deviations, correlation coefficients, alphas, and betas. But basic investment principles, applied with professional decision-making and risk minimization skills, have fared far-better without MPT mumbo-jumbo than they ever will with it.

And, for the record, market volatility is nothing to be afraid of, really --- just bring it on!

Market Meltdown!

noreply@noemail.com (Mike Conlon) — Wednesday, November 09, 2011 13:30:00 +0000

There’s really only one story to discuss today and that is Italy. Italian bond yields are soaring and I mean soaring and the market reaction is not pretty. In a story of “be careful what you wish for”, Italian Premier Berlusconi is said to be stepping down next week but today’s crisis may actually reverse those wants and return him to power.

Since the announcement that he would step down after austerity measures were implemented, bond yields jumped to above 7% for the first time in the Euro-era. This is an unsustainable level and the uncertainty over the new Italian government is weighing heavily on the market.

Stocks are lower in Europe and in the US, as are commodities. Risk aversion is high right now as Italy is the third 3rd largest Euro zone economy, as well as the world’s 8th largest. It is clearly too big to fail and it is doubtful whether or not it could be saved.

As bond yields rise, it becomes harder for them to service their debt and creates market dislocations as everyone runs for the exit.

Making matters worse, there is no news on the docket that could potentially save us today, with the exception of a Bernanke speech later this morning. I wouldn’t be surprised at this point if his speech today is not the one he started out with earlier this morning.

And that is the problem with contagion; at first it was Greece and now it is Italy. As the size and scope of the indebted nations gets bigger, the larger the problem occurs. And guess who is up next?

The United States. That’s right, the good ol’ US of A. The budget super-committee is working right now to attempt to fix our problems and if this is not a wake-up call, then nothing ever will be. The only thing keeping US yields low right now is the threat of Bernanke and the Fed tanking interest rates and the Dollar much lower.

While it will be a difficult task to do that, the potential of QE3 may mean negative real interest rates which could be disastrous for the markets.

For the sake of global harmony, let’s hope that the situation in Italy comes to a close rapidly. Just don’t be surprised if Berlusconi is the one who comes out on top!

By Mike Conlon, ForexNews

Stock Market Volume Charts

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Associated Press) — Monday, November 07, 2011 13:30:00 +0000

MarketVolume™ (www.MarketVolume.com) is the leading provider of volume-based technical analysis and market timing on the Internet. Unique to MarketVolume™ is its JavaVolume™ charting technology. JavaVolume™ charts are very versatile in that they allow the user to plot intraday stock market volume data in real-time – a resource that has never before been available to the trading public. JavaVolume™ now makes precision trading of index shares and options based on real-time volume data a reality. This service remains unrivalled to this day.

Following are some useful links that will help you understand MarketVolume™‘s various products and services more fully.

Products & Services: A list of all MarketVolume™ products (including detailed product descriptions and product comparisons), as well as membership information.

Signup: A wealth of information on how to start using MarketVolume™‘s products and services. Includes pricing information and payment options, for instance paying with a credit card or by check.

Stock Index Charts (JavaVolume™ charts): A detailed description of our stock index charts (NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, Russell 2000, NYSE, and others), including explanations on how to use our volume technical indicators. Snapshots of actual charts are provided.

Trade of the Week: Examples of how we trade QQQ and SPX options by applying volume-based technical analysis to the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 indexes. We have been publishing the results of our options trades on a weekly basis since January 2002.

Among the "Trades of the Week" are actual trades that have remained active for more than one week and were thus carried forward. These examples provide good study material for how our volume-based technical indicators work in real time.

Custom Volume Trading Indicators: Numerous examples of market timing by volume-based technical analysis to major U.S. indexes (e.g., the NASDAQ 100, Dow Jones Industrials, and S&P 500) and exchanges (NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ), showing how we have created our own custom trading indicators in the process. Two examples of custom volume trading indicators are the “NASDAQ 100 Volume Indicator” and the “S&P Market Movers Indicator”.

Chart School Tutorial: A volume technical analysis tutorial where we describe various aspects of volume-based technical analysis and how we apply it to time the market. Here, you will find everything from the definition of technical terms to a detailed analysis of the relationships between volume spikes and index reversal points.

Information on U.S. Exchanges: General information about the NYSE, AMEX, and the NASDAQ: Their history, component stocks, trading systems, company listing requirements, quotes, charts, and more.

Information on U.S. Indexes: Information on major U.S. indexes, such as the NASDAQ 100, DJI, S&P 500, Russell 300, and others: General index description, component stock listings, index derivatives, historical data, index shares funds, options and futures, quotes and charts, as well as the basic concepts of setting up a trading system.

Chart Examples: Examples of how we apply volume technical analysis to our JavaVolume™ charts for the purpose of anticipating the market direction over the short-, mid-, and long-term. Market timing examples are based on charts of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes.

Chart Help: A useful feature for anyone who uses our JavaVolume™ charts, whether as a beginner or advanced user. This section includes detailed explanations of all chart features, chart settings, and provides a list of hotkeys. Any updates made to our JavaVolume™ charts will be reflected in this section.

FAQs: The most frequently asked questions, classified into the following categories: Products, charts, chart technical analysis, and trading signals.

Troubleshooting: A user-friendly section designed to provide support in case you experience problems with any of the following: Login to our sites, signing up for services, using JavaVolume™ charts, receiving email-alerts, or any other issues.

Support: Contact information for more help.

ETFs Trading Signals: Index-Trading-Systems™ (ITS) is an independent MarketVolume™ affiliate. ITS delivers trading signals for U.S. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Signals are generated using a unique system of volume technical analysis. MarketVolume™ subscribers receive ITS signals at a significant discount.

Market Commentaries: Index-Day-Trading™ (IDT) is an independent MarketVolume™ affiliate. IDT is the first online service that delivers daily market commentaries based on volume technical analysis. The service includes a short-, mid-, and long-term outlook for the anticipated market trends of major US indexes. MarketVolume™ subscribers receive this service at a significant discount.

Stock Market Sentiment: Stock-Market-Sentiment™ - an independent MarketVolume™ affiliate - offers a free online service that delivers market sentiment data derived from a unique Internet-based polling service.

Systems for Online Trading

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Associated Press) — Sunday, November 06, 2011 13:30:00 +0000

By searching Options Trading System as an exact phrase in Google you will receive over 40,000 results. Because of the leverage that the options market provides, this market has became one of the most popular among speculative investors. So, its not a surprise that many online services offer advice - options signals, trading newsletters, market overview, automatic trading systems, auto trading buy/sell alerts and much more that can be used to trade on the options market.

The question is how can a trader choose the right one from such vast number of the services available. Remember, there is no service in the financial world that will take responsibility for the money you lose on the market. You may find big investment companies, registered investment advisors, however each of them will show you the disclosure statement where it states black on white that you are fully aware of the investment risk and you are the only one who is responsible for trading decisions.

Below you will find three simple questions that should be answered before subscribing and dedicating your money to a particular online trading system:

Does the online trading service allow you to auto-trade signals (newsletters) with any online broker?

If not, then WHY?

Is it because online brokers refuse to auto-trade signals that are not clear, or perhaps refuse to do so because the alerts are not executable, or because they received complaints from the traders that the service trade history does not match the real signals Many traders would say: I dont care why they are not autotradable. If there is no broker who trusts them, I do not trust them either. And this trader would be right. There is no sense analyzing, evaluating and investing your money with a service that is suspicious from the outset.

You will find a list of the major online brokers who provide autotrading at
http://www.qqq-options-trading.com/support/autotrading_brokers.asp.
Simply, go to the broker, find the list of the services that are autotradable and start from there, rather than analyzing 40,000 results from the Google search.
Is the history of the past trades available for performance analysis?

A trader should be able to review a systems trade history. If the traders history is not available or its difficult to locate on the web-site or its presented in a format that is not suitable for analysis and tells basically nothing - then the reasonable question could be: WHY? Is there something to hide?

Without a trading history its difficult to correctly evaluate any trading system. A trader will not be able to answer the simple questions, such as what is the average price of the used options, how long the system stays in the position, how many trades were opened at the time, what options expiration is used, what min amount could be invested, what is the system performance and much more

The history of the past trades should be accessible and easily located on the home page. The history should be represented in a format suitable to analysis. It is especially useful if the service already provides statistics similar to
http://www.qqq-options-trading.com/signals_QQQQstat.asp
as well as it additionally provides calculated semiannual and annual returns.
Are options signals monitored by an independent third party?

At the current moment you may find several well known independent third party services that for a small membership fee will provide you with detailed historical track record of the different online options trading systems and advisory services they track. As a rule these services have an agreement with different online advisory services on tracking their records and any trader may easily check and compare the past trades on the subject if they were changed in order to hide some lost trades. Some of these services not only track the trades but may provide you with detailed statistic numbers for each particular trading system.

Again, if you do not find the name of the online advisory service you are interested in on the list, you may ask WHY?

Those are three first questions that an investor should ask before subscribing to any online options advisory trading service or options trading system. However, it does not mean that if you find an advisory service that satisfies all these three points you can invest all your savings into this system - not at all. These three basic questions only help you to narrow your research from 40,000 Google search results to 30-50 online services and you have to continue your evaluations and learn as much as you can about the service you choose. You should be fully comfortable with those whose analysis you follow. At the end its your money and you are the one who will keep the profit from a good service and you are the one who will suffer the losses from the choosing of a bad service.

Simple Trading Systems

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Associated Press) — Saturday, November 05, 2011 13:30:00 +0000

Many traders are looking for a simple trading system. Simple trading system in the meaning that it is simple to use in order to make a trading decision, but it does not imply that this system would not require investing a lot of time into learning and developing. If there was a simple trading system in the meaning of developing, then everyone would start making money on the market. If this would be easy then everyone would be a winner and this is impossible.

The simple trading system could be developed, however the process of the building could be very complex, time consuming and may require even some investments. As a rule, the simpler the trading system looks at the end, the more complex and more difficult could be the process of developing this system.

There are a lot of simple trading indicators and many of them work. At first sight, the offered trading system for using these indicators may look simple and attractive. However, a trader who starts to apply them for personal investing may discover that most likely there is research, testing and adjusting before any system starts making real money.

By taking a look at a trading system based on the popular technical indicators you may find out that they really look simple. For instance:

- Buy when RSI is below 30 (indication of an oversold market) and sell when RSI is above 70 (indication of overbought market).

- Buy when Stochastics is below 20 (indication of an oversold market) and sell when Stochastics is above 80 (indication of overbought market).

- Buy when SBV declines below 20% and sell when SBV advances above -20%. See example at
http://www.marketvolume.com/content/products/rs/trading_system.asp

- A big number of others…

Despite the fact that the systems above look very simple, when it come to the part of applying these systems to the real market, many traders would find out that this is a much more complex process. There are a lot of questions that need to be answered and some of them are very important: what chart setting should be used, what stock to select, what timeframe to trade, how much money to invest, what stop-loss strategy to use…One of the most important question could be how to define the market stage when the selected technical indicator generates fake signals and how to control losses.

As a rule, building a trading system could be split into several stages:

1. Stock Market Research – selecting the market for trading (stock market, options, futures, Forex…), defining the type of trading (intraday scalping, one trade a month or long-term trading), looking for technical indicators that work in the selected market and for selected type of trading;

2. Learning – a trader must learn the selected indicators, markets, selected securities. Find out the best chart settings, define the moments when indicators do not work, find out what is profit could be achieved and what losses could be expected... A trader has to return back to stage #1, if at the end of studying he/she sees that it simply does not work (it could happened).

3. System Developing – based on the knowledge and experience gained in the second stage a trade develops the trading system, which then is monitored and adjusted. On this stage additional rules could be added to the trading system, stop-loss strategy could be set as well as money management strategy could be defined. Many traders create several modifications to the system for Bull and Bear markets.

4. System Testing – one of the most important stages where a trader may see how the developed system works in the real market situation. Very often this stage is used to spot the mistakes and make system adjustments. It may save time in developing trading system if the stage of the development is tied with testing stage (stage #3) that a trader develops, tests and adjusts a system at the same time.

The building of a simple trading system is not an as easy as many of traders would like to see it, and there is no 100% guarantee that the created simple trading system will be successful. After all efforts, a trader may find out that the created simple trading system is a failure.

Forex Market Outlook 11/3/11

noreply@noemail.com (Mike Conlon) — Thursday, November 03, 2011 13:30:00 +0000

Once again all eyes are on Greece this morning as we are running the gamut of Greek theater. First we saw the drama unfold during the painstaking debt crisis resolution and now we’re watching the comedy of errors that is taking place with misstep after misstep. Will we eventually see the tragedy? And whom would it end up being tragic for: the Euro zone or Greece itself.

The G-20 meeting now taking place has essentially been hijacked by the recent events taking place in Greece and now a series of additional hurdles must be navigated in order for the Euro zone to survive in its current form. The first hurdle is tomorrow’s confidence vote which may end up seeing the current regime ousted, including the Prime minister Papandreou. This could prove disastrous as they scramble to form a new coalition and to determine who is actually in charge. Rumors and false headlines are now hitting the wires saying everything from Papandreou resigning to the referendum may be canceled.

This brings us to the second hurdle, should they survive the confidence vote tomorrow, which is the idea of the referendum on the bailout. While Greece may have been intending for this vote to decide on just the bailout, EU leaders have now made it perfectly clear that this referendum would be over whether or not Greece wants to remain in the Euro zone. All aid money that Greece was supposed to receive is now being withheld until this vote.

So there is a much greater possibility that Greece will not be a member of the euro zone by year- end. Who this hurts more remains to be seen. The problem of contagion though is starting to rear its head again as yields in Italy are increasing as they rush to cut deficits.

This all comes ahead of this morning’s ECB rate decision, the first under new chief Draghi from Italy. There is some speculation that he could issue some sort of statement to the effect that the ECB will be the lender of last resort for the EU or that he could even go so far as to reduce interest rates. As I mentioned yesterday, there is a distinct possibility he could do the latter.

**Edit for breaking news** Draghi cuts interest rates by 25bp!

However, yesterday’s FOMC statement was quite different with Bernanke lowering the Fed’s economic forecast yet again as they have been miserably behind the curve. Later in the day in his speech, he said that QE3 was a potential option which gave the market hope of the free-money trade being able to continue. Europe has continued to run with this theme as US dollar weakness is driving the forex markets this morning, despite all of the risk emanating for the Euro zone.

On the data front, there isn’t a whole heck of a lot going on, with the US initial jobless claims expected to show another 400K unemployed. Later this morning ISM Non-Manufacturing figures are due to be released. Tomorrow’s NFP report is the big one to watch.

Last night, New Zealand’s unemployment rate ticked higher to 6. 6% from an expected 6. 4% showing signs that economy is potentially cooling.

Other than these reports, the focus of the markets will be on what happens in Greece and how the Euro zone and the world reacts. Pressure on the Greek PM to withdraw the referendum has to be immense and whether or not he is even in power next week remains a mystery.

In the meantime, the anonymous rumors will dominate the internet so take them with a grain of salt. This could produce very choppy market action over the course of the next few days, which is a short-term trader’s dream, but a long-term investor’s nightmare.

So remember to take what the market gives you and to cut losses quickly and move on to the next opportunity. With uncertain markets conditions, one small error could turn into a huge mistake in not dealt with swiftly!

By Mike Conlon, ForexNews

Forex Market Outlook 11/2/11

noreply@noemail.com (Mike Conlon) — Thursday, November 03, 2011 13:30:00 +0000

How does one get invited to that ultra-ritzy resort town of Cannes, France? Apparently by upsetting G-20 leaders as you potentially re-neg on a deal that may be the most important economic event of the past year. Yet that’s where Greek PM Papandreou will be as he has been “summoned” to the G-20 meeting to explain what the heck is going on in Greece.

For the record, Greece is not part of the G-20 so his presence is unwelcome to say the least. Both European and G-20 leaders have been blind-sided by the referendum vote in Greece and it has the potential to derail all of the wheeling and dealing that has taken place over the last month as the Euro debt resolution was announced. Picture this—say you owe a lot of money and your creditor agrees to reduce the amount you owe by 50%. What to you do? You take it of course and say ‘thank you’. What you don’t do is say let me get back to you.

Yet that’s exactly what Greece has done, which is essentially a slap in the face to Euro zone leaders and by proxy, the rest of the world. If Greece does not back away from this action or mitigate its impact, then the rest of the world may suffer. Don’t be surprised if this referendum turns into an “opinion poll” which has little consequence. Yet this may go down as one of the biggest idiotic blunders in the history of geo-politics.

Despite this SNAFU, the markets are up-beat to start the day as anticipation of today’s FOMC meeting may give markets hope that there is more free money on the horizon. It is unlikely to produce any change to policy, as the last change dubbed “Operation Twist” hasn’t had enough time to work. But, Bernanke may officially open the door for QE3 if he deems the economic environment to be worsening. So far, the Fed has been way behind the curve and their economic forecasts and estimates have largely missed the mark. This can be problematic when you consider that they use these estimates to make policy.

In the meantime, economic data is trickling in and is mixed. In Germany, PMI manufacturing figures came in better than expected, but the unemployment rate ticked higher to 7% from an expected 6. 9%. Italian PMI figures were a lot worse than expected.

Tomorrow the ECB is having its first rate policy meeting with their new chief Draghi at the helm. Will this produce a change of policy? Market expectations are that there will be no change, but if they fear a weakening they could be prompted to cut rates. This is one of those times that a rate cut might make sense, so I’m a bit surprised more people aren’t talking about it. A rate reduction in Australia just took place, so we could begin to see the start of some ratcheting down.

But the most important data to round out the rest of the week is on unemployment figures, with New Zealand reporting later tonight and Canada reporting on Friday. Today marks the first day of the US employment reports with Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report being the most important of the bunch.

This morning, the Challenger jobs cuts figures came in better than expected, as did the ADP employment change figures. The ADP report shows private payrolls changes and today’s report of 110K net new jobs was better than the expected 100K.

However, one cannot make a direct correlation between today’s ADP number and Friday’s NFP. Friday’s figure is the official government report and takes into account both government and private payrolls. So it will be interesting to see what that figure is, as it is one of the most significant economic barometers we have. Expectations are for a gain of 95K with unemployment rate to remain stubbornly high at 9. 1%.

For now, the markets are content to drift higher and hope for some Fed love later today and are also hopeful that the G-20 summons for the Greek PM will remove the uncertainty surrounding the deal. Should Bernanke fail to produce or should the G-20 fail to change Greece’s intended course of action, then we could slip back into risk aversion mode in a heartbeat.

As a result of these uncertain prospects, I am content to keep the trading to short-term and am not looking for the home-run trade

By Mike Conlon, ForexNews